2019 Geopolitics For Digital Nomads
Digital nomads are positioned to benefit most from a knowledge of global affairs. The country-agnostic view differs drastically from the ‘My-Country-And-Everywhere-Else’ perspective.
Always mobile, we see the opportunities of distant places and the drawbacks of our own home. Less attached, we are more willing to see them.
I do not study geo-politics. I conduct sporadic, shallow research as a hobby, and as such, my views are most likely wrong.
With that disclaimer, I’d like to provide my geopolitical observations, with notes about their relevance to digital nomads.
The Americas
Trump’s trade war, walls, and travel bans are the biggest news from North America. But unless you’re crossing illegally from Mexico or are a citizen of Iran, new travel-related laws won’t affect you.
If you run a China-based e-commerce business, as many digital nomads do, those tariffs will mean materially higher costs complying with the Federal government.
In South America, Venezuela’s crisis takes center stage. I expect more refugees and criminals to enter Colombia and Brazil. Of course, don’t travel to Venezuela, but don’t let their bad press stop your travel plans to the rest of the beautiful continent.
Europe
Italy, like Greece, is spending itself into debt. Spain is recovering from its economic and unemployment issues. Germany and France call for austerity while the south wants to take out bigger loans. (Of course, Britain decided to exit altogether.)
I see lower costs-of-living in financially weaker southern nations for nomads looking to re-locate to Europe on a smaller budget or who are heavily investing in their location-independent businesses.
Fiscal policy disagreements (with Putin perhaps inserting a clandestine crowbar to increase NATO and EU divisions) doesn’t particularly matter to the nomadic traveler with no direct European ties.
China’s heavy real estate investment is increasing rents in cities like London, which may squeeze nomads in these cities, but the effect is felt much more by locals who have no choice but to downgrade their housing while trying to remain close to city-center.
Middle East
The fight is… USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE vs. Iran and Russia.
In a region with sporadic conflict, active terrorist groups, and national military assets spread to every corner, I wouldn’t expect a warm welcome outside Dubai’s walled garden.
Turkey, while dealing with its internal political, financial and economic issues as well as waves of Syrian refugees, maintains closer ties to the USA and the EU. Don’t take part in any anti-presidential political rallies and it seems like a welcoming location for an unforgettable visa run.
Africa
Two things hold constant across the continent.
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The population is rising faster than current infrastructure can support.
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China is heavily investing into building infrastructure.
USAID lags far behind China. Trains, roads, schools and all the tallest buildings… they’re all financed and built by China.
I wouldn’t trust Africa with my investment today…
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Naïve foreigners are targets for business scams
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Smaller market size
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Some ‘asset expropriation without compensation’ in the south
… but from the standpoint of a visitor with business interests elsewhere, Africa is safer and more easily traveled than it’s ever been, while remaining dirt cheap in most cases.
Africa is a large continent so avoiding zones of active violence is as simple as avoiding Venezuela when visiting South America.
Asia
China China China China China… China is the news in Asia.
Yes, North Korea, but if Kim Jung Un launches one real offensive 10 American nukes are on the way to Pyongyang before the USA’s defense system knocks his firecracker out of the sky.
North Korea’s land border with China matters more than any danger North Korea poses to the USA. Any on-the-ground fighting would lead to millions of refugees and my guess is China is working to avoid a North Korean conflict for this reason.
Trump’s China tariffs may move manufacturing down into South East Asia, which could increase the amount of money and investment in the area, as well as the number of Western expats with ‘posted abroad’ corporate jobs. This may increase the cost of living for everyone, locals who will have higher-paying manufacturing jobs and nomads who will need to take on more freelance work.
To replace lost American consumption, China may stimulate at-home consumer spending, which I expect would marginally increase cost-of-living in China.
I expect China would also try to maximize trade flowing through One Belt One Road, working to stabilize the “-stan” countries, which will have newly built infrastructure and big loans China wants repaid. It seems that this region may, for the most open-minded nomads, become that ‘incredibly cheap, completely safe and not well known’ destination that South East Asia was 20 years ago.
These Are My Theories…
Let’s review them in 20 years to see how wrong I was.
(Please send me a message through my contact form if you see anything incorrect in my observations.)